Bloodlands: The War in Ukraine

Timothy Snyder’s book Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stahlin details the atrocities committed by the Nazis and Soviets in eastern Europe, that is, the Baltic states, Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. It is a harrowing tale of the many mass murders and pogroms that took place between 1933-1945. Snyder does not even take into account the Russian civil war that saw violent tussle over Ukraine by Ukrainian nationalists, anarchists, Soviet communists, and White Czarists from 1919-22. Sadly, it seems that the bloodlands have now returned to Ukraine.

At the moment, the Russian army is advancing on four fronts. (1) South from Belarus and Russia towards Kyiv on both sides of the Dnieper River; (2) Southwest from Russia towards Kharkiv, (3) West from Donbass into Mariuple; (4) North from Crimea into Kherson.

It appears to me that Russian strategy is to encircle, then bombard and starve out Kyiv to create a humanitarian crisis and to force the Ukrainian government to surrender and accede to Russia’s demands. They are also attempting to take control of all major cities on the east side of the Dnieper River. So the main effort is to capture Kyiv and to consolidate Russian control of eastern Ukraine.

More concerning is what happens if Kyiv falls, but the Ukrainian government does not surrender but reforms in Lviv. In which case, it will be important to keep an eye on the Russian forces advancing out of Crimea. Will they either drive north towards Kyiv to effectively cut the country in half? Or, will they head west towards Odessa, to the other major Ukrainian city on the Black Sea coast? If Russian forces head for Odessa - and there are reports of a Russian naval force sitting off the coast - then Russia won’t be content to seize the eastern half of Ukraine, but will be going for everything. This means that, after Kyiv is captured, a further westward attack on Lviv will be inevitable. And Lviv is only 70 km (43 miles) from the Polish border.

Also, reports from Belarus suggest that Putin is also planning a subsequent invasion of Moldova, a small country lodged between Ukraine and Romania.

Factors that might constrain Russia.

(1) This is not a repeat of Crimea in 2014. Ukrainian resistance has been to date far more concerted and fierce than expected. Also, international outrage against Russia and Belarus for the invasion was probably underestimated. The international community is showing genuine resolve to punish Russia with everything except military measures. International opinion is also wholly in Ukraine’s favour and wholly against Russia even if China and India refuse to join the pile on.

(2) Russia is having logistical problems in the north, which has led to some embarrassing social media posts of Ukrainian people finding various Russian vehicles which ran out of gas.

(3) Ukrainian President Zelensky might be a clown on stage, but the guy has, shall we say, put his balls on the table. Zelensky’s resilience and fortitude have contributed to a very positive international PR campaign for Ukraine across the world. Hence the repeated mantra, “If Russia stops fighting, the war ends. But if Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends.”

(4) The longer this war goes on the more Putin risks a backlash from the Russian public, generals, and oligarchs. No one is immune from an internal coup. As the economic noose tightens around Russia, Putin will have to either deliver the goods or could end up dead in his bathtub. For many Russian elites, life is pretty good, and Putin’s war is jeopardizing that. If Putin gets serious about going nuclear, I think it’s the Oligarchs and their retainers who will rein in Putin. What’s the point of being an Oligarch if you can’t sail around Greece and own British soccer teams, or worse, if your telecommunications company is destroyed, and if your country is one big Chernobyl?

(5) Western countries are still pouring weapons into Ukraine, esp. short-range SAMs, which will make the Russians nervous about low flying planes.

(6) If Russian forces keep advancing west, then NATO countries like Poland and the Baltic states will start to get nervous and NATO will have to start mobilizing to repel Russian incursions. All the more so, because if Ukrainian counter-insurgency forces and western recruits use Poland as a base to launch operations, then Russia will commence covert and clandestine operations in Poland. Putin will be forced to take the NATO threat more seriously, and they could impair his ability to hold Ukraine or move onto other acquisitions like Georgia or the Baltic states.

The main factors in Russia’s favour are:

(1) They have not yet used their devastating air and artillery power. If they wanted to, they could flatten whole cities, just as they did to Grozny (Chechnya) and Aleppo (Syria). They only have to make an example of one city to scare others into submission.

(2) Ukrainian military forces now seem spent and exhausted, hence the massive and stagnating Russian convoy in the north is not being harassed. From here on, it is urban warfare and counter-insurgency warfare. That can still hurt the Russians, but the main Ukrainian military machine appears to have been broken.

(3) Eastern Europe is about to be flooded with Ukrainian refugees. This will create a humanitarian crisis, lead to chaos along the borders and lines of communication, and cause internal divisions about how to deal with the influx of refugees. What is more, it’s a good opportunity to get saboteurs, spies, and agents provocateurs across the border if you’re in the KGB. You can bet that this is already happening!

(4) Putin is probably willing to inflict a lot more damage on Ukraine than he already has and he’s ready accept more casualities and sanctions than he already has. Nothing so far has weakened his resolve.

(5) If losses in Ukrainian become unbearable and if economic sanctions make life impossible, Putin could launch a small nuclear missile strike somewhere like the Baltic Sea, or even in Poland, and then demand total capitulation to his demands or else threaten the west with complete nuclear annihilation. If the west strikes back, it is armageddon. If the west backs down, Putin takes the Baltic states, Georgia, and maybe Poland.

The situation for Ukraine remains dire, because, as Julia Baird notes, “The Ukrainians are fighting bravely, but they fight alone. We cannot draw comfort from the fact that people in serious danger are heroically fighting for their lives while dallying about sanctions or which Russian banks to shut out of SWIFT, or deify Zelensky without listening to his claims that our support came too late.”

Various charities are taking donations to help with the influx of refugees, you can learn more about them here. Otherwise, keep praying Psalm 31 for the Ukrainians.