Losing Our Religion: The Religious Decline of the West?
I have been reading Ronald F. Inglehart’s book Religion’s Sudden Decline: What’s Causing it, and What Comes Next? (Oxford: OUP, 2021).
The thesis of the book is:
From 1981 to 2007, most countries became more religious, but from 2007 to 2020, the overwhelming majority became less religious. For centuries, all major religions encouraged norms that limit women to producing as many children as possible and discourage any sexual behavior not linked with reproduction. These norms were needed when facing high infant mortality and low life expectancy but require suppressing strong drives and are rapidly eroding. These norms are so strongly linked with religion that abandoning them undermines religiosity. Religion became pervasive because it was conducive to survival, encouraged sharing when there was no social security system, and is conducive to mental health and coping with insecure conditions. People need coherent belief systems, but religion is declining. What comes next? The Nordic countries have consistently been at the cutting edge of cultural change. Protestantism left an enduring imprint, but 20th-century welfare added universal health coverage; high levels of state support for education, welfare spending, child care, and pensions; and an ethos of social solidarity. These countries are also characterized by rapidly declining religiosity. Does this portend corruption and nihilism? Apparently not. These countries lead the world on numerous indicators of a well-functioning society, including economic equality, gender equality, low homicide rates, subjective well-being, environmental protection, and democracy. They have become less religious, but their people have high levels of interpersonal trust, tolerance, honesty, social solidarity, and commitment to democratic norms.
I accept the premise that since 2007 religion in the West has declined and is declining rapidly. Furthermore, I do think declining birth rates are both a symptom and cause of its decline (i.e., people with families are more likely to be religious yet people are having less families).
For a good anecdote, I remember this tweet from Quilette editor Claire Lehmann a few months back:
The more progressive a city, the less likely its population will have people in long-term relationships with children (i.e., married with kids). That is gonna impact the demography in big ways whether we are talking about child-care centres or churches.
So I accept the premise that fertility rates are a big part of the equation concerning religion and its post-2007 decline. Otherwise, I think Inglehart’s thesis is faulty for several reasons: